Riesgo país, tamaño de mercado y flujos de IED en América Latina: un enfoque de panel (2006–2022)

Teófilo    León-Rivera; Andrés Jesús    Ramírez-Laurente; Rúsbel Freddy     Ramos-Serrano

doi:10.47606/ACVEN/PH0479

Authors

Teófilo León-Rivera Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6400-775X
Andrés Jesús Ramírez-Laurente Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2987-9325
Rúsbel Freddy Ramos-Serrano Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2352-1848

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47606/ACVEN/PH0479

Keywords:

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),, Country Risk, Gross Domestic Product, Panel Data, Random Effects

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of country risk and macroeconomic performance, measured by GDP, on FDI flows in seven Latin American economies—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela—during 2006–2022. Using a quantitative approach and panel data models, these relationships are evaluated in a context of high economic volatility, financial crises, and external shocks. The results of the random effects model show a significant negative relationship between country risk and FDI, and a robust positive effect of GDP on investment flows. The model explains 58.4% of the total variation in FDI, suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations and the perception of risk over time have a greater influence than structural differences between countries. Furthermore, FDI is concentrated in larger and more stable economies, while those with higher risk exhibit reduced and volatile flows. The findings underscore that macroeconomic stability and a sustained reduction in sovereign risk are essential conditions for strengthening the investment climate and promoting sustainable growth in the region.

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